David J. Bier
In April this year, I detailed how President Trump had reduced legal immigration more than twice as much as he had reduced illegal immigration—a result I had predicted in January 2025. At that time, I was still relying on my estimates for some categories because the administration was so slow to release data. We now have more complete data through February 2026, showing that I somewhat understated the decline. Monthly legal entries had actually fallen 2.7 times more than illegal entries through February 2026.
Summary
Illegal entries had already fallen before President Trump took office, and while they have fallen further, declines in legal immigration far surpass those in illegal entries. Legal entries in major categories were down about 145,000 compared to a drop in illegal entries of about 53,000. Illegal entries are overstated because we are counting all Border Patrol arrests, including those of individuals expelled immediately. The chart below tracks immigration through February 2026, the most recent month for which the State Department has published data.
Illegal Immigration Had Already Fallen by Over 80 Percent Before Trump
The number of monthly Border Patrol arrests at the southwest border fell by 81 percent from December 2024 to August 2026, but by December 2024, it had already fallen by 81 percent from its peak in December 2023. Of the decline from the peak, 84 percent occurred under President Biden as of August 2026. Prior to Trump taking office, Border Patrol releases had already dropped 96 percent from their peak. Border Patrol releases have declined further under Trump’s second term, but in absolute terms, releases fell far more before he took office. Of the decline in releases from their peak, 96 percent occurred before Trump took office.
Recorded evasions of Border Patrol—known “gotaways”—also fell about 80 percent under President Trump from December 2024 to September 2025. But again, by December 2024, evasions had fallen well before Trump took office, falling by 83 percent from their peak in November 2022. The data from 2026 is spotty and from media leaks, not from the agency directly, but it is clear that President Trump’s administration continued an earlier trend in declines in illegal immigration.
President Trump’s administration has credited the low levels of illegal immigration to an executive order that requires Border Patrol to ignore US asylum law and immediately return any crosser to their home country. In an amicus brief for a case challenging the order, I detailed some reasons to believe that this claim is likely wrong. Besides the fact that illegal immigration was already falling, I note that arrests by the one population exempt from the order—unaccompanied children—fell just as much, and just as quickly, as other arrests. Better explanations for the changes are the general fear of the Trump administration and worsening economic conditions for lower-skilled labor here.
Immigrant Visas for Legal Permanent Residents Fell by About Half
The State Department has not published the number of immigrant visa issuances since September 2025. Since then, President Trump has banned all immigrant visas for nationals of 40 countries, including the Palestinian Territories, effective January 1, 2026. As I’ve previously described, this affected one in five immigrant visa applicants. The State Department also suspended the Diversity Visa Lottery, effective December 23, 2025. Meanwhile, in a three-sentence press release, the State Department suspended immigrant visa issuances for 75 countries (for a total of 92 banned countries) on January 21, 2026.
As I’ve detailed before, these bans affected half of all legal immigrants from abroad, including half of all spouses and minor children of US citizens, based on 2024 immigrant visa processing data. In my original post on this subject, my estimates of this decline—based on the banned countries—understated the effect these policies would have because I assumed that more processing would shift to other countries. It didn’t because the purpose was to cut overall levels of legal immigration and because the State Department did not prepare for this new policy.
Visas for Fiancé(e)s and Spouses of US Citizens Fell by More Than Half
K visas for fiancé(e)s and spouses of US citizens were down 61 percent from February 2024 to February 2026. The 40-country ban—which started in January 2026—also affects them, excluding about 3,000 visas annually. But because the 75-country immigrant visa ban does not, it’s possible that at least some spouses will eventually try to shift from immigrant visas to K‑1 visas. This does appear to have happened, which explains why I slightly overstated the decline in K visas for February 2026.
International Student Visas Fell by Nearly Half
As of February 2026, student visa issuances were still down 42 percent compared with February 2024. The Trump administration has enacted specific policies targeting international students. In January 2025, President Trump signed an executive order that led to the cancellation of F‑1 status and the revocation of 1,700 to 4,500 student visas between January and April. The administration also arrested and placed in detention several students for their political speech. In May, the administration attempted to suspend the right of Harvard to enroll international students at all but was blocked by the courts.
In May and early June, the State Department suspended all student visa issuance for three weeks during the peak season. In June, Trump signed an executive order banning student visas from 19 countries, which affected about 10,188 students annually. In December, he expanded that ban to 40 countries, affecting about 23,000 students per year. Comparing the peak months when students typically get visas, student visas had already fallen by 40 percent, comparing the summer of 2024 to the summer of 2025.
In my initial projection for February 2026, I understated the decline, presumably either because more students are simply scared to come or because visa denials have increased at consulates. Unfortunately, we have no data on denials, but it would make sense for students to be less excited about coming. This week, the Trump administration announced a $70,000 fee on work authorization for international student graduates of US universities who apply to work under the Optional Practical Training (OPT) program. This may dissuade some more students from coming. Moreover, DHS has finalized a rule to limit international students’ study in the United States to generally just four years, which a judge temporarily blocked.
H‑1B Visas Have Fallen by 78 Percent
In the average month, H‑1B visa issuances in 2025 were already lower than in 2024. But in September, President Trump signed an executive order mandating a $100,000 fee to petition for a newly hired H‑1B worker outside the United States. DHS has revealed that the visa fee reduced filings by 91 percent for workers targeted by it. There were 65,000 new H‑1B approvals for workers outside the US in FY 2024, and there were 219,659 visas issued abroad, including renewals. This implies that about 30 percent of visa issuances are for workers targeted by the ban.
Based on these facts, I had estimated in April that the fee would reduce H‑1B visa issuances by about a quarter last year because H‑1B renewals were exempt from the fee. In fact, H‑1B visas—along with H‑4 visas for their spouses and children—were down 78 percent from the February 2024 level, implying that more than just the ban is to blame. Over the summer, a district court struck down the $100,000 fee as an unconstitutional tax, but we don’t yet know how the administration has implemented that order. Moreover, the president issued a new $100,000 fee proclamation in September 2026, and DHS has proposed a new $103,000 fee via regulation, though it is not yet in effect. It has suspended several major companies—including Microsoft, Adobe, and Infosys—from the program, as announced today. Given the uncertainty, many H‑1B workers may be too scared to leave to renew their visas abroad.
Refugees Entering Legally from Abroad Fell by About 90 Percent
The number of refugees—who enter legally and are granted full protection based on their fears of persecution—has also declined by nearly 90 percent. The president initially suspended the refugee program entirely before restarting it to exclusively admit white South African refugees. The drop was from 12,518 in December 2024 to 1,341 in March 2026. The cap for FY 2026 is just 7,500, so the monthly average for the rest of the year will be 500. As I’ve pointed out previously, most refugees blocked by the administration were persecuted Christians.
Asylum Seekers Entering Legally Fell 99.9 Percent
Every prior administration allowed some asylum seekers to enter legally at the southwest ports of entry. Even the first Trump administration initially encouraged the practice, but it then terminated entries during the pandemic in 2020, and the second Trump administration did so again in January 2025 by eliminating the CBP One scheduling app and banning asylum. As a result, the number of monthly southwest border legal entries by asylum seekers fell 99.9 percent from almost 40,000 in December 2024 to just 26 in February 2026. The most recent data show just 31 in August 2026.
President Trump posted on social media a version of this chart after I published my original post on this subject, declaring Democrats’ border policy “a disaster.” In June 2026, the Supreme Court upheld the government’s authority to block all legal entries by asylum seekers at ports of entry.
Legal Entry Cuts Were 2.7 Times Higher Than Illegal Entries
When we put together the full picture of legal and illegal immigration, we see that President Trump has indeed cut legal entries far more than illegal entries in absolute terms. The available information suggests that about 2.7 times as many legal entries are being stopped as illegal entries: 144,569 versus 53,128. Among the cuts to immigration, three-quarters (73 percent) were from legal entries, not illegal entries.
This comparison inflates illegal entries because most illegal crossers caught by Border Patrol were not being released into the United States in December 2024. These are just the major visa categories. If we included every category, the cuts would be more severe. It also does not include all the people who are already in the United States and are banned from receiving legal status or converting from temporary to permanent status.
These cuts to legal immigration are harming US citizens seeking to reunite with their spouses, fiancés, children, and other relatives. They are also undermining US prosperity and increasing the US deficit. But they also illustrate the central misconception about the Trump administration’s immigration agenda. It is not about stopping “illegal” immigration. It is a broader assault on all types of immigration. As Americans debate the path forward on immigration, that’s a reality everyone should understand.
