Jeffrey Miron
California, New York, and other states have lessened parole for exiting prisoners, hoping it will improve their reentry outcomes. One study of Illinois’ efforts
reveal[s] that the reform reduced the share of these prisoners who returned to prison within one year by 9–10 percentage points …. This reduction was almost entirely due to a lower rate of technical revocations of supervision.
Further, there was
no evidence that the reform affected crime rates among released prisoners … [as] the absence of supervision reduced the likelihood of parolees committing crimes, offsetting any increases in crime associated with fewer technical revocations. … [Also,] longer terms of parole supervision diminish the benefits of lawful behavior because parolees face the ongoing threat of technical revocation.
The researchers also
conducted policy simulations to estimate the impact of reducing existing … [parole for low-to-medium offenders] by half. … [The] findings indicate that such a reform would reduce the average prison population by roughly 3 percent and likely cause no harm to public safety.
Altogether, the study
demonstrate[s] that existing parole systems increase reincarceration rates through technical violations of supervision conditions without bolstering public safety.
Cross-posted from Substack.
